Every month, our economists issue an overview of the key data from Canadian retail sales.
Retail sales in Quebec posted strong growth for a second consecutive month in August, up 1.0% month-on-month (+1.3% in July).
After a mixed start to the year, retail sales growth in Quebec has progressed steadily over the past two months. This upturn comes against a backdrop of increasing purchasing power for Quebecers, while the inflation rate in Quebec has been below wage growth for several months now.
In Canada, retail sales were up 0.4% on July. This increase was mainly attributable to sales by motor vehicle and parts retailers. Core retail sales, which exclude dealer sales, fell by 0.4% over the month.
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Strong retail sales in July contribute to economic optimism in Canada, while inflation has stabilized around the Bank of Canada’s target in recent months.
In July, retail sales in Quebec rose sharply (+1.5%) to $15.0 billion. For the third consecutive month, Quebec outperformed the Canadian average in this respect.
Growth was also seen across Canada, with retail sales up 0.9% on June to $66.4 billion. Eight of Canada’s ten provinces reported higher sales than in June.
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In June, retail sales in Quebec fell slightly (-0.1%) to $14.8 billion. This represents the fifth decline in eight months, but does not indicate a significant trend.
Across Canada, retail sales were down 0.3% on May, to $65.7 billion. Despite this general decline, core retail sales, excluding dealers, service stations and fuel retailers, showed an increase (+0.4%). Food retailers performed particularly well, recording an increase of 1.2% on the previous month.
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In May, the value of retail sales in Quebec totaled $14.8 billion, down 0.2% on the previous month. This decline remains below the Canadian average (-0.8%) and is part of an upward trend (3.1%) over the past 12 months.
Across Canada, retail sales were down (-0.8%) to $66.1 billion in May. Core retail sales, which exclude sales by dealers, service stations and fuel retailers, fell by 1.4%. The only increase in retail sales came from vehicle and parts dealers (+0.8%), marking the third time in four months that sales have risen.
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In April, the value of retail sales in Quebec reached $14.9 billion, up 0.4%. Although this result is among the most modest in Canada, ahead of Nova Scotia and Ontario, the growth observed since April 2023 (+1.9%) is in line with the Canadian average (+1.8%).
Across Canada, retail sales are up (+0.7%), reaching $66.8 billion to start the second quarter. Core retail sales, which exclude sales by dealers, service stations and fuel retailers, rose by 1.4%.
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In March, the value of retail sales in Quebec reached $14.8 billion, up 0.6%. This second consecutive increase follows a three-month period of decline, from November 2023 to January 2024. Annual growth (0.5%) remains stable and below Canadian growth (2.0%).
In Canada, retail sales were down (0.2%) for a second consecutive month. Only two sub-sectors recorded increases. E-retail sales, however, rose by 3.0% in March to $4.0 billion.
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In February, the value of retail sales in Quebec fell by 0.1% to $14.7 billion, the fourth consecutive decline.
The further decline in sales in Quebec reinforces the hypothesis that Quebecers are cautious in their consumption behavior.
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In January, the value of retail sales in Quebec fell by 1.0%. Lower sales in Quebec suggest changes in consumer behavior, with Quebec’s share of Canadian sales declining for the third consecutive month.
In Canada, retail sales were down 0.3% on December. A depreciation for which only three retail sub-sectors are responsible.
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Quebec closes 2023 on a high note.
Although the value of retail sales in Quebec rose by a modest 0.2% in December, annual sales were 4.1% higher than in 2022. Canadian retail sales were also in the green in December.
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While October’s data suggested that consumer growth would continue in the fourth quarter, November saw the biggest drop (-1.4%) in retail sales since March 2023.
Canadian retail sales also fell, down 0.2% on October.
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In October, the value of retail sales in Quebec rose by 0.7%. The increase in Quebec retail sales is in line with recent statistics on household consumption, released this morning. The release of Quebec’s third-quarter economic data reveals a 0.6% quarterly rise in consumption. In this context, it’s worth pointing out that the surge in sales recorded in October is a promising sign for further consumer expansion in the fourth quarter.
Canada also recorded a 0.7% increase in the value of its retail sales during the month.
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The value of retail sales in Quebec rose by 0.4% (+$67 M) in September. This gain, the smallest of the year, continues the trend of stabilizing monthly variations.
An increase in the value of Canadian sales was also recorded in September (+0.6%). This increase was mainly due to the performance of the provinces of Ontario and Alberta.
As for the Northwest Territories, it recovered from the setback suffered in August due to forest fire evacuations, posting a remarkable monthly increase of 26.6%.
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The value of retail sales in Quebec recorded the biggest gain of all Canadian provinces, and contributed to the increase in sales in Canada (+0.3%).
The increase in national sales value, however, was due to a price level increase of around 0.5%, as total retail sales volume fell by 0.2%. All the sub-sectors that make up core retail sales saw their sales appreciate in July, in contrast to June’s observations.
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While Canadian retail sales stabilize, Quebec records its biggest gain of the year (+1.3%)
The food sub-sector posted the biggest losses of the month. The 0.9% decline in June was mainly due to lower sales by beer, wine and spirits retailers. Sales at supermarkets and other grocery stores also fell (-0.4%), despite six months of consecutive growth.
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In Canada, May retail sales stabilized at $66 bn, marking a slight increase (+0.2%) on April 2023. Similarly, Quebec retail sales also showed a stabilizing trend, despite a 0.9% drop.
This was a month without any major surprises to report, and Statistics Canada’s provisional estimates do not anticipate any notable turbulence on the horizon either.
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In Canada, retail sales amounted to $65.9 billion, up 1.1% on March 2023. Quebec sales also rose (+0.9%) during the month, reaching a new all-time high.
Core retail sales, which exclude sales in the automotive and gas station sectors, posted their fifth consecutive month of growth.
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In Canada, retail sales totaled $65.3 billion, down 1.4% on February 2023. Quebec also recorded a decline (-0.9%) over the month.
Vehicle and auto parts dealers recorded the biggest decline in the country (-4.4%). This is the first drop in retail sales for this sub-sector of the economy since June 2022.
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While retail sales in Canada reached $66.3 billion, down 0.2% from January 2023, Quebec made gains (+0.9%) during the month.
Gasoline stations and fuel retailers recorded the largest decline in the country (-5.0%). The 1.0% depreciation in gasoline prices over the same period contributed to this and was mainly due to the accumulation of crude oil inventories in the United States.
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Canadian quarterly retail sales fall for the first time since their pandemic low. In September, the appreciation of global crude oil supply and lower prices at the pump contributed significantly to the 0.5% decline in the country for the month. Among the seven provinces that recorded a decline, Quebec had the largest one in absolute value when compared to August. A reduction in the value of its sales of $178 million takes it away from its historical peak in May 2022.
For October, Statistics Canada anticipates a strong increase in retail sales (+ 1.5%). This is a surprising increase given the Bank of Canada’s efforts in recent months to reduce inflation.
Please note this publication is only issued in French.