Monthly data – Inflation

Every month, our economists issue an overview of key inflation data.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – April 2024

Annual CPI growth in Quebec slowed in April to 3.0% (+3.6% in March), the lowest annual price increase in Quebec since March 2021. Inflation in Quebec has undergone a number of ups and downs in recent months. Nevertheless, the trend towards the 2% target continues.

In Canada, inflation slowed to 2.7% on an annual basis (+2.9% in March), also the smallest increase since March 2021. April’s inflation statistics should enable the Bank of Canada to make its first rate cut at its announcement on June 5. Indeed, the annual growth rates of the various core inflation measures continued to move favorably towards the 2% target, and are now all within the BoC’s target range.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – March 2024

Annual CPI growth in Quebec rebounded slightly to 3.6% in March (+3.3% in February), as housing and gasoline prices continue to exert upward pressure on the inflation rate. In addition, Quebec once again boasts the highest inflation rate in Canada, mainly due to services inflation, which remains close to the peak recorded in December 2022.

In Canada, inflation accelerated slightly in March, to 2.9% on an annual basis (+2.8% in February). Despite this acceleration, core inflation measures continued to show significant progress towards the 2% target. In this sense, conditions are ripe for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut its key interest rate for the first time this summer.

 

 

 

 

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – February 2024

Annual CPI growth in Quebec was stable at 3.3% in February (+3.3% in January), remaining at its lowest level in almost three years. There was a marked slowdown in food prices, but this was offset by higher gasoline prices.

In Canada, inflation slowed to 2.8% on an annual basis (+3.9% in January). This was an unexpected slowdown, as analysts were expecting inflation to accelerate to 3.1%. In addition, annual core CPI growth fell to 2.8% (+3.1% in January), the lowest since July 2021.

The Bank of Canada will take a positive view of February’s inflation statistics. In this context, we believe that the release of similarly encouraging data next month could represent the confirmation the Bank has been waiting for to officially open the door to possible cuts in the policy rate.

 

 

 

 

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – January 2024

Annual CPI growth in Quebec moderated sharply to 3.3% in January (+4.0% in December). This is the lowest annual price growth recorded since April 2021. This slowdown is largely attributable to the year-on-year decline in gasoline prices in January (-1.3%). Overall, price growth continues to slow in five of the eight main categories of goods and services.

In Canada, inflation slowed to 2.9% year-on-year (+3.4% in December). This is a slower pace than had been anticipated, when private-sector analysts were forecasting an inflation rate of 3.2%. In addition, annual core CPI growth fell to 3.1% (+3.4% in December), the lowest since November 2021.

The Bank of Canada will take a positive view of January’s inflation statistics. Indeed, the trend in core CPI represents a step in the right direction, but the Bank will want to see sustained progress towards the 2% target before lowering its key rate. In this context, the BoC is unlikely to announce any rate cuts in the short term.

 

 

 

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – December 2023

Annual CPI growth in Quebec rose again in December, to 4.0% (+3.6% in November). For 2023 as a whole, average annual inflation fell sharply to 4.5% (6.7% in 2023).

As in Quebec, inflation accelerated in Canada in December, to 3.4% on an annual basis (+3.1% in November). In particular, the monthly statistics showed that core inflation in Canada remains persistent, showing little progress since mid-2023. Given these developments, combined with persistently high inflation expectations, it is unlikely that the Bank of Canada will announce rate cuts in the short term.

 

 

 

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – November 2023

In Annual CPI growth in Quebec fell again in November, to 3.6% (+4.2% in October). This is the slowest pace of price growth since April 2021. Despite this slowdown, the trend observed in recent months continued in November, with Quebec still posting the highest inflation rate in Canada.

In Canada, inflation treaded water in November, rising by 3.1% on an annual basis (+3.1% in October). On a more positive note, the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures continued to show progress towards the 2% target. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Canada is likely to judge that its monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive, and that further increases in its key rate will not be necessary.

 

 

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – October 2023

In Quebec, growth in the consumer price index moderated to 4.2% in October (+3.8% in September). Despite this, Quebec continues to have the highest inflation rate in Canada, mainly due to services inflation, which is influenced by tensions on the labor market and the resulting wage pressures.

In Canada, overall inflation slowed to 3.1% in October (+3.8% in September). This slowdown was mainly due to the significant drop in gasoline prices over the month (-7.8%). Moreover, the sharp decline in various measures of core inflation favoured by the Bank of Canada should enable it to remain on the sidelines when it makes its next decision on December 6, leaving rates unchanged at 5% for a third consecutive decision.

 

 

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – September 2023

In Quebec, the consumer price index rose by 4.8% year-on-year in September (+4.6% in August). The rise in inflation in September was due in particular to the evolution of gasoline prices, which rose by 11.0% in September compared with a year earlier.

In Canada, inflation slowed slightly to 3.8% (+4.0% in August). Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, moderated further to 3.2% (+3.6% in August). This positive trend in core inflation in September should enable the Bank of Canada to keep its key rate unchanged at 5.0% at its next announcement on October 25. This will give the Bank time to assess whether current monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive.

 

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – August 2023

Inflation accelerated again in Quebec in August, to 4.6% (+3.9% in July). This was to be expected, given the rise in gasoline prices during the month. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose in August, to 4.3%, signalling that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong in Quebec.

In Canada, total CPI rose to 4.0% (+3.3% in July), and core CPI to 3.6% (+3.4% in July). Inflation remains widespread in Canada, and the acceleration of core inflation in August increases the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will decide to raise its key rate again at its next announcement on October 25.

 

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – July 2023

In Quebec, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.9% year-on-year in July (+3.6% in June). Inflation is thus back on the rise, after two consecutive declines. In Canada, inflation also rose, to 3.3% (+2.8% in June).

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Québec and Canada – June 2023

In Quebec, inflation measured by the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 3.6% in June (+4.0% in May). Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, continued to outpace total inflation, rising to 4.4% in June.

In Canada, inflation moderated to 2.8% (+3.4% in May). Little progress was made, however, on the BoC’s preferred measures of core inflation – median and truncated CPI – which remained above the upper limit of the Bank’s target range.

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – May 2023

In Quebec, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May (+4.8% in April), its lowest level since June 2021. The slowdown in inflation was mainly due to falling gasoline prices.

In Canada, the moderation in inflation was more marked, coming in at 3.4% (+4.4% in April). The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 4.0% year-on-year (+4.4% in April). The slowdown in overall inflation will be welcomed by the Bank of Canada, but the persistence of core inflation could prompt it to raise its key rate again at its next announcement on July 12.

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Quebec and Canada – April 2023

In Quebec, inflation measured by the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 3.6% in June (+4.0% in May). Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, continued to outpace total inflation, rising to 4.4% in June.

In Canada, inflation moderated to 2.8% (+3.4% in May). Little progress was made, however, on the BoC’s preferred measures of core inflation – median CPI and truncated CPI – which remained above the upper limit of the Bank’s target range.

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Québec and Canada – March 2023

In Quebec, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.7% in annual variation in March. The downward trend in inflation thus continued, supported mainly by the decline in gasoline prices (-13.8% year-over-year).

In comparison, inflation in Canada stood at 4.3% (+5.2% in February), a low since August 2021. These statistics are in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecasts published last week in its Monetary Policy Report, and signal that it should remain on the sidelines in the coming months.

Please note this publication is only issued in French.

Monthly data for inflation in Québec and Canada – December 2022

In Quebec, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 6.3% in annual variation in December. This is a weaker price increase than in November (+6.8%), mainly due to lower gasoline prices.

In Canada, inflation also slowed to 6.3% (+6.8% in November).

Please note this publication is only issued in French.