With an election campaign under way, immigration has become one of the most debated issues in Quebec. Every party leader proposes their own immigration target, often without the data to back it up. Aviseo Conseil set out to fill that gap with a study conducted for a group of sixteen Greater Montreal chambers of commerce, represented by the Chambre de commerce de l\u2019Est de Montr\u00e9al (CCEM). The study documents the region\u2019s absorptive capacity using factual indicators and measures the economic effects of different immigration scenarios.<\/p>\n","show_on_homepage":true,"flex":[{"acf_fc_layout":"text","text":"
The starting point is unambiguous: between 2022 and 2024, all of Quebec\u2019s population growth came from immigration. Yet the recent tightening of immigration policies led to a net decline in 2025, as more than 50,000 non-permanent residents left Quebec.
\nAccording to projections from the Institut de la statistique du Qu\u00e9bec, maintaining current immigration targets would lead to a population decline in Greater Montreal in the coming years, even as labour needs remain significant. The survey of 470 Greater Montreal businesses conducted for the study confirms this: 85% of them hire or plan to hire immigrants, mainly because they cannot find enough local workers to keep their operations running.<\/p>\n
The study goes beyond economic needs. It proposes an analytical framework to assess Greater Montreal\u2019s ability to welcome an additional population, looking at housing, health, education, francization and transportation.<\/p>\n
The picture is mixed. Health, education and transportation show unfavourable signs of strain, while childcare services fare better in Greater Montreal than in the rest of Quebec. Population aging will also reshape these pressures through 2051, without necessarily easing them.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"separator"},{"acf_fc_layout":"text","text":"
\nThe study\u2019s findings have also been covered by CityNews Montreal<\/a>, in the context of the ongoing provincial election campaign.<\/h5>\n<\/blockquote>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"separator"},{"acf_fc_layout":"text","text":"
Three scenarios under review<\/h3>\n
At the core of the study is the economic modelling of three permanent immigration level scenarios, compared with the status quo (45,000 admissions per year) using Aviseo\u2019s computable general equilibrium model:<\/p>\n
\n
- Slight increase (47,300 permanent immigrants)<\/li>\n
- Moderate increase (61,000 permanent immigrants)<\/li>\n
- Considerable increase (75,300 permanent immigrants)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
The result<\/strong>: a slight increase would not be enough to reverse the decline of the metropolitan region\u2019s population. Conversely, a considerable increase would help demographically but would put much greater pressure on an absorptive capacity that is already strained. According to the study, the moderate-increase scenario offers the best balance between meeting labour needs and managing reception capacity.<\/p>\n
Thirteen recommendations<\/h3>\n
Beyond the numbers, the study offers thirteen recommendations built around four axes: a long-term strategic vision, targeting priority profiles (economic, skilled and French-speaking immigration), strengthening the absorptive capacity, and a review of the Programme de l\u2019exp\u00e9rience qu\u00e9b\u00e9coise (Quebec Experience Program) to better retain people already settled in Quebec.
\nA common thread runs through several of these recommendations: directing skilled economic immigration toward the sectors related to the absorptive capacity (construction, health, education and childcare). In other words, choosing immigrant workers who can help resolve the identified pressures, rather than simply adding to the demand for these services. The central message Aviseo wants to convey through this study is that the question is not only how many, but above all who and how. Better-targeted planning can support Quebec\u2019s prosperity without multiplying pressure on public services.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"separator"},{"acf_fc_layout":"text","text":"\nWant to go further? Download Aviseo Conseil\u2019s summary of the study on immigration and the demographic future of Greater Montreal. Please note that the full study is available in French only.<\/h5>\n<\/blockquote>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"file","file":{"ID":2735,"id":2735,"title":"Immigration et l'avenir de\u0301mographique du Grand Montre\u0301al - Aviseo - 2026","filename":"Immigration-et-lavenir-de\u0301mographique-du-Grand-Montre\u0301al-Aviseo-2026.pdf","filesize":571657,"url":"https:\/\/aviseo.ca\/app\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Immigration-et-lavenir-de\u0301mographique-du-Grand-Montre\u0301al-Aviseo-2026.pdf","link":"https:\/\/aviseo.ca\/en\/perspectives\/greater-montreal-immigration-demographic-future\/immigration-et-lavenir-demographique-du-grand-montreal-aviseo-2026-2\/","alt":"","author":"12","description":"","caption":"","name":"immigration-et-lavenir-demographique-du-grand-montreal-aviseo-2026-2","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":2742,"date":"2026-09-23 14:42:57","modified":"2026-10-13 19:45:26","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"application\/pdf","type":"application","subtype":"pdf","icon":"https:\/\/aviseo.ca\/wp\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/document.png"}}]},"yoast_head":"\n
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